The Ministry of Transport and Transport Economics Knowledge Hub invite you to:

Transport infrastructure: decision-making under uncertainty:

The real options approach

Abstract

Many transport investments face uncertainty, especially on the demand side. Traditional analysis is inadequate and can result in either severe congestion or white elephants like “The Bridge to Nowhere”. Better techniques have emerged, exploiting the value of flexibility and strategic decision making – the real options approach.

This presentation follows the shorter presentation provided by David Greig in March 2016. An expert in real options, David Campbell from the Australian economic consulting firm ACIL Allen, will share his experience from applying the approach in the transport (road, rail and ports), research, health, defence, water, drought, and climate change contexts.

Time and date:                  12pm to 1pm, Thursday, 12 May 2016

Venue:                               Ministry of Transport, Level 6, 89 The Terrace, Wellington

RSVP:                               Helen Huang,  h.huang@transport.govt.nz (by Wednesday, 11 May, 2016)

David Campbell is a Sydney-based Senior Associate of ACIL Allen, and was one of the founders of ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd, one of the two predecessor companies to ACIL Allen. David has many years of experience advising clients in relation to policy and investment strategy in areas involving high levels of uncertainty.

This has included pioneering applications of real options methods – that focus on dealing appropriately with the value of strategy flexibility and the value of information in guiding the development of adaptive investment strategies that offer greater value by limiting downside risk and securing access to upside possibilities.